I am reading some reports on the Israeli-Iran war. Iran systemstically overcame their defense systems being electronically sabotaged for 8 hours, overcame the Iron Dome, and struck key Israeli military targets without further escalation.
Yes, Iran will move to getting the bomb faster. No, that risk is not priced in. Netanyahu now begs for US intervention. Doesn’t sound like strength to me. US defense systems failed protecting Israel. I don’t believe the US is set up to navigate the age of drones. TACO getting the US involved will be expensive and deadly for all involved.
The black swan is individual risks are understood, but not more than one simultaneously. I hear there is a physical platinum shortage on the London exchange. We sure do live in interesting times.
Israel would love nothing more than to see a few B-2 Spirits ghost their way into Iranian airspace and unload GBU-57s on Fordow, Natanz, and those bunker-hardened missile depots. But here’s the catch: the U.S. isn’t handing over MOPs—or the stealth bombers needed to deliver them—anytime soon. The only viable path is a U.S.-led strike or coordinated joint op, and that’s a scenario the market still files under “highly unlikely.” As for Iron Dome, it's not impenetrable. Some ballistic missiles do get through—but the system still knocks out most of what’s thrown its way.
I am reading some reports on the Israeli-Iran war. Iran systemstically overcame their defense systems being electronically sabotaged for 8 hours, overcame the Iron Dome, and struck key Israeli military targets without further escalation.
Yes, Iran will move to getting the bomb faster. No, that risk is not priced in. Netanyahu now begs for US intervention. Doesn’t sound like strength to me. US defense systems failed protecting Israel. I don’t believe the US is set up to navigate the age of drones. TACO getting the US involved will be expensive and deadly for all involved.
The black swan is individual risks are understood, but not more than one simultaneously. I hear there is a physical platinum shortage on the London exchange. We sure do live in interesting times.
Israel would love nothing more than to see a few B-2 Spirits ghost their way into Iranian airspace and unload GBU-57s on Fordow, Natanz, and those bunker-hardened missile depots. But here’s the catch: the U.S. isn’t handing over MOPs—or the stealth bombers needed to deliver them—anytime soon. The only viable path is a U.S.-led strike or coordinated joint op, and that’s a scenario the market still files under “highly unlikely.” As for Iron Dome, it's not impenetrable. Some ballistic missiles do get through—but the system still knocks out most of what’s thrown its way.