The interplay between CPI risks, tariff policy, and bond market stress is painting a fragile macro ceiling. But if Section 899 tax retaliation triggers a global capital shift, could that be the real “trapdoor” moment for U.S. equities?
My take on Section 899 is straightforward: it grabbed headlines but doesn’t carry the weight the media would have you believe. Most major business outlets (with the notable exception of the WSJ editorial page) jumped on it with predictable anti-Trump framing. But if this were truly a game-changing policy shift, the S&P wouldn’t be holding near all-time highs. You’d see sharper reactions from markets and louder signals from Wall Street C-suite execs already preparing defences.
Instead, it feels more like a negotiating chip baked into a broader strategy—a headline-maker meant to generate leverage, not actual policy firepower. Unless Wall St CEOs start waving red flags, I’m treating this as a scripted feint, not a market grenade.
Thank you.
For any1 interested, here are my May CPI estimates:
https://arkominaresearch.substack.com/p/may-2025-cpi-forecast?r=1r1n6n
The interplay between CPI risks, tariff policy, and bond market stress is painting a fragile macro ceiling. But if Section 899 tax retaliation triggers a global capital shift, could that be the real “trapdoor” moment for U.S. equities?
My take on Section 899 is straightforward: it grabbed headlines but doesn’t carry the weight the media would have you believe. Most major business outlets (with the notable exception of the WSJ editorial page) jumped on it with predictable anti-Trump framing. But if this were truly a game-changing policy shift, the S&P wouldn’t be holding near all-time highs. You’d see sharper reactions from markets and louder signals from Wall Street C-suite execs already preparing defences.
Instead, it feels more like a negotiating chip baked into a broader strategy—a headline-maker meant to generate leverage, not actual policy firepower. Unless Wall St CEOs start waving red flags, I’m treating this as a scripted feint, not a market grenade.