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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

Hi Stephen, I agree. Equities are under some spell. Tesla may be a good candidate for puts soon. The bond market faces $1 trillion dollar deficits forever without the 45 tax cuts expiring. Lots of debt needs to be rolled over. The proposed maga legislation would increase deficits. And tax enforcement has collapsed so actual deficits may be higher.

Plus, we have the debt ceiling coming due. What a mess. It won’t end well for the US.

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Stephen Innes 🇨🇦 🇹🇭's avatar

I’m watching closely to see how the bond market fights back. Yields have already jumped on the threat of fresh Treasury issuance, but the Treasury toolkit is still waiting in the wings. However, we need to position for Treasury operations to be pressure-tested to the brink and possibly spring a leak.

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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

I agree. June to Oct is a bad time for stock market, I expect pressure to be applied then with bonds causing trouble. Fed can always buy the Treasuries on the open market.

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Andy Kotlarz's avatar

It doesn’t matter how many trillions of dollars the Trump Administration adds to the National Debt - if the plan is to default on that debt.

And switch to $Trump crypto as the national currency . . .

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