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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

The cognitive dissonance between US equity valuations and reality grows.

Regarding what you said yesterday, it reminded me of earthquakes. Smaller trembles, then larger ones more frequently. I expect the laws of physics continue to work and we’ll see the same in the stock market and economies.

The world has about 7 years to diversify out of the US and build up their own systems. A very short time frame before this long economic cycle comes to a close.

I am glad the Fed will prioritize labor over inflation and move aggressively on rates.

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Stephen Innes 🇨🇦 🇹🇭's avatar

The idea that the world can decouple from U.S. tech in seven years is more aspirational than actionable. It conflates cyclical exhaustion with structural displacement. Betting on near-term global tech de-dollarization assumes a level of coordination, capital formation, and institutional stability that does not exist outside the U.S. or even state-sponsored China. Spinning up sovereign tech stacks and investable ecosystems in that timeframe is more wishful extrapolation than grounded scenario planning. I say 20 years

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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

You are right that it will take 20 rather than 7. Which is why I am confident the regimes of the US and Russia will continue to destabilize the world with bigger earthquakes. We are witnessing history, Stephen. Our goal is to survive it.

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