But the real catalyst, or “ boost juice,” came from the Fed—not in the form of Powell’s usual tightrope routine, but from Governor Christopher Waller, who injected rare Fed clarity into the mix.
The cognitive dissonance between US equity valuations and reality grows.
Regarding what you said yesterday, it reminded me of earthquakes. Smaller trembles, then larger ones more frequently. I expect the laws of physics continue to work and we’ll see the same in the stock market and economies.
The world has about 7 years to diversify out of the US and build up their own systems. A very short time frame before this long economic cycle comes to a close.
I am glad the Fed will prioritize labor over inflation and move aggressively on rates.
The idea that the world can decouple from U.S. tech in seven years is more aspirational than actionable. It conflates cyclical exhaustion with structural displacement. Betting on near-term global tech de-dollarization assumes a level of coordination, capital formation, and institutional stability that does not exist outside the U.S. or even state-sponsored China. Spinning up sovereign tech stacks and investable ecosystems in that timeframe is more wishful extrapolation than grounded scenario planning. I say 20 years
You are right that it will take 20 rather than 7. Which is why I am confident the regimes of the US and Russia will continue to destabilize the world with bigger earthquakes. We are witnessing history, Stephen. Our goal is to survive it.
The cognitive dissonance between US equity valuations and reality grows.
Regarding what you said yesterday, it reminded me of earthquakes. Smaller trembles, then larger ones more frequently. I expect the laws of physics continue to work and we’ll see the same in the stock market and economies.
The world has about 7 years to diversify out of the US and build up their own systems. A very short time frame before this long economic cycle comes to a close.
I am glad the Fed will prioritize labor over inflation and move aggressively on rates.
The idea that the world can decouple from U.S. tech in seven years is more aspirational than actionable. It conflates cyclical exhaustion with structural displacement. Betting on near-term global tech de-dollarization assumes a level of coordination, capital formation, and institutional stability that does not exist outside the U.S. or even state-sponsored China. Spinning up sovereign tech stacks and investable ecosystems in that timeframe is more wishful extrapolation than grounded scenario planning. I say 20 years
You are right that it will take 20 rather than 7. Which is why I am confident the regimes of the US and Russia will continue to destabilize the world with bigger earthquakes. We are witnessing history, Stephen. Our goal is to survive it.