Markets have reverted to “stimulus junkie” mode. Whether it’s a dovish pivot already underway (ECB, BoE, PBoC) or one being soft-launched (Fed) , the path of least resistance is more liquidity, not less. The deflation fog is spreading quickly enough to override tariff noise—and even the U.S. VAT-style interpretation( which is gaining traction) of tariffs dilutes it into a marginal cost pass-through, rather than a game-changer.
Meanwhile, fiscal taps are back open—from Trump’s front-loaded “beautiful bill” to Beijing’s $1.5 trillion mortgage firehose. That’s more than enough Boost Juice to keep the party going.
Markets have zero bandwidth for political theatre in LA. But if unrest metastasizes into a politically neutral or worse, a conservative enclave, that’s when algo desks will start pricing in civil instability risk. Until then? Noise, not signal.
Can’t fight the tape. Man, does it feel manic. Markets are utterly unconcerned on the deployment of US troops to a US city. Hopium runs high.
Markets have reverted to “stimulus junkie” mode. Whether it’s a dovish pivot already underway (ECB, BoE, PBoC) or one being soft-launched (Fed) , the path of least resistance is more liquidity, not less. The deflation fog is spreading quickly enough to override tariff noise—and even the U.S. VAT-style interpretation( which is gaining traction) of tariffs dilutes it into a marginal cost pass-through, rather than a game-changer.
Meanwhile, fiscal taps are back open—from Trump’s front-loaded “beautiful bill” to Beijing’s $1.5 trillion mortgage firehose. That’s more than enough Boost Juice to keep the party going.
Markets have zero bandwidth for political theatre in LA. But if unrest metastasizes into a politically neutral or worse, a conservative enclave, that’s when algo desks will start pricing in civil instability risk. Until then? Noise, not signal.