who knows? the painting of these trends based on demand/supply often seem dreadfully
obvious and long term, but appear, dissapear more evanescently. there are multiple
factors: preference for hybrid over EV, a trumpy return to gas powered cars, a need to restore reserves. and prospective omnivorous ai demands for power suggest a counter move is not out of the question. right now the non-ai economy looks recessionary, but the stim side of the republican budget plan, if you can call it a plan, and oversea rate cuts, may provide at least a temporary lift to general economic activity. we've been seeing industrials rallying more than is immediately justified, suggesting more activity coming up, and the industrials rely on oil, so the one tends to lift the other. the iranians are banning the international atomic energy supervisors
and if iran moved partially refined uranium and centrifuges to other locations they may have resumed further refinement already. Israel is gathering intel now, and the ceasefire is really just a lower level of ongoing conflict. likely to be followed by a further assault. having gone this far, the israelis must finish the job, go for the jugular, which may disrupt energy supplies.
these are all suppositions, but it's certain that excess oil and gas supply is at least partially
priced in, while the sp500 is not pricing in a recession. take a took at the felder report, 'the bull case for energy' where he passes on a chart of how a disjunction this wide in the sp500 to
oil and gas pricing always leads to a major reversal, altho it may take time. so i bought some XOM and XLE after the ceasefire, and am looking at COP. i'm trading it at the periphery and bought some ERJ a non usa, non-BA, sound south american richie rich pleaser of a small jet builder that can trade around our tariffs to hedge the oil exposure. (and recoiled in a lot of SGOV, a best of the bunch ai leg, 'quality' stocks and dividend stocks...) . i adjust depending on where things go, like i trimmed profits in NVDA after a too wicked rally and humungous insider selling...
there's more than one way to skin a cat, and i'm not quick witted enough to trade day by day
who knows? the painting of these trends based on demand/supply often seem dreadfully
obvious and long term, but appear, dissapear more evanescently. there are multiple
factors: preference for hybrid over EV, a trumpy return to gas powered cars, a need to restore reserves. and prospective omnivorous ai demands for power suggest a counter move is not out of the question. right now the non-ai economy looks recessionary, but the stim side of the republican budget plan, if you can call it a plan, and oversea rate cuts, may provide at least a temporary lift to general economic activity. we've been seeing industrials rallying more than is immediately justified, suggesting more activity coming up, and the industrials rely on oil, so the one tends to lift the other. the iranians are banning the international atomic energy supervisors
and if iran moved partially refined uranium and centrifuges to other locations they may have resumed further refinement already. Israel is gathering intel now, and the ceasefire is really just a lower level of ongoing conflict. likely to be followed by a further assault. having gone this far, the israelis must finish the job, go for the jugular, which may disrupt energy supplies.
these are all suppositions, but it's certain that excess oil and gas supply is at least partially
priced in, while the sp500 is not pricing in a recession. take a took at the felder report, 'the bull case for energy' where he passes on a chart of how a disjunction this wide in the sp500 to
oil and gas pricing always leads to a major reversal, altho it may take time. so i bought some XOM and XLE after the ceasefire, and am looking at COP. i'm trading it at the periphery and bought some ERJ a non usa, non-BA, sound south american richie rich pleaser of a small jet builder that can trade around our tariffs to hedge the oil exposure. (and recoiled in a lot of SGOV, a best of the bunch ai leg, 'quality' stocks and dividend stocks...) . i adjust depending on where things go, like i trimmed profits in NVDA after a too wicked rally and humungous insider selling...
there's more than one way to skin a cat, and i'm not quick witted enough to trade day by day
currency flux- that's heavy sledding.