Takeaways by Dark Side of the Boom™
Goldman’s model makes Le Pen the clear 2027 favourite, assigning her a 68% probability of winning the presidency, far ahead of Philippe at 12% and the rest of the field.
The identity of the second-round opponent is everything: Le Pen wins 95% of simulated run-offs against Mélenchon, but only 51% against Philippe, where historical centrist polling bias makes the race essentially a coin toss.
A Le Pen presidency would not necessarily mean gridlock. Conditional on her winning, Goldman gives RN a 56% chance of an absolute parliamentary majority, with another 24% chance of needing the centre-right to govern.
The market implication is that Le Pen is moving from tail risk toward base-case political risk. Goldman’s most likely joint outcome is now Le Pen plus a parliamentary majority at 39%, meaning French fiscal policy, OAT spreads and broader European political risk need to be watched well before 2027.
Le Pen Is the 68% Favourite for 2027
Goldman Sachs Paris Desk has put numbers around what markets have mostly been treating as a political tail risk: Marine Le Pen is no longer sitting in the model as an outside possibility. She is the clear favourite. Goldman’s new election framework assigns Le Pen a 68% probability of winning the French presidency in 2027, with the bank arguing that the result could have meaningful consequences for fiscal policy, structural reform and France’s relationship with Europe.
The more interesting market question, however, is not simply whether Le Pen reaches the Élysée Palace. It is what comes through the door behind her.