Deutsche Bank’s Gold Road Map: The Explosive Phase Is Not Over
Gold has spent much of the past two months coiling between roughly $4,000 and $4,100. To a trader, that sort of price action can feel like the market has gone dormant.
Gold has spent much of the past two months coiling between roughly $4,000 and $4,100. To a trader, that sort of price action can feel like the market has gone dormant. Deutsche Bank’s Michael Hsueh sees something different: not the end of the move, but a pause inside a price regime that remains statistically explosive. The distinction is uncomfortable for both camps. Bulls must accept that explosive markets can correct violently; bears must explain why the correction has so far refused to behave like history’s nastier endings.
Takeaways by Dark Side of the Boom™
Deutsche Bank precious-metals strategist Michael Hsueh argues that gold remains inside the “explosive” price phase that began in August 2024, even after the correction from its 2026 peak.
The historical warning is real: previous explosive episodes have often ended with substantial drawdowns. But Deutsche Bank’s work suggests the current correction has been unusually muted and may already have found a floor near $3,900/oz.
Commodity-relative valuation produces the bearish outlier, implying gold could be worth roughly $2,600/oz. Deutsche Bank gives that framework less weight than its financial-variable fair-value model, which points toward approximately $4,700/oz by year-end.
Record official-sector demand remains the structural backstop. Central-bank buying reached about $45 billion in real terms during Q2 2026, helping explain why old valuation anchors have not pulled gold back to earth.