Asia Rides the Trade Deal Thermals as Markets Glide Higher Into Day Six

Asian equities caught another updraft, rising for a sixth straight session, as whispers of broader trade accords scattered across the tape like migrating birds sensing the storm has passed.

Trade Winds Turn, but Oddly ( or maybe not) the Dollars Compass Spins South

Asian equities caught another updraft, rising for a sixth straight session, as whispers of broader trade accords scattered across the tape like migrating birds sensing the storm has passed. With the ink barely dry on the U.S.-Japan tariff truce — inked at a palatable 15% — traders are already scanning the horizon for the next deal to surface. Europe? Maybe. India? China? Everyone? Perhaps. But the mood is pure Electric Avenue.

The MSCI Asia Pacific index notched a 0.7% gain, its longest winning streak since January, while Japanese bourses jumped out of the gate like thoroughbreds chasing clean air. Stateside, the S&P 500 logged its third straight record close — a slow, steady melt-up that says less about exuberance and more about the absence of fear.

But while equities drift higher like a helium balloon on a windless day, something beneath the surface is starting to hum. Alphabet floated higher after-hours on a revenue beat, but Tesla hit turbulence as Elon warned of “a few rough quarters” — not quite a mayday call, but enough to rattle the cockpit. Meanwhile, SK Hynix offered a reminder that in the chip race, it's not always the loudest that lead — sometimes it’s the ones quietly beating expectations.

Still, the dollar remains the odd passenger — slumping when it should be rising. A 15% tariff regime replacing a feared 25–30% slug should be bullish, especially with US risk assets running hot and Treasury yields higher. In other words, stocks up and bond yields up should be bullish for the dollar. Yet, the greenback is being treated like baggage — dragged along but barely lifting its head. Why?

The answer may lie in the smoke signals coming from Washington. While trade policy appears increasingly pragmatic, monetary policy is navigating a delicate political balance. The Powell saga is complicated for FX traders to shake. Trump’s jabs at the Fed chair have gone from theatrical to pointed.

Polymarket puts Powell’s early exit at 18%, but rate expectations have already shifted. Futures are pricing 75bp of cuts next year — a dramatic rethink from the 25bp baseline back in April. It’s not quite a crisis of confidence, but it’s starting to feel like a shift in regime — not just in policy, but in how that policy is perceived.

Back on the trade front, Commerce Secretary Lutnick framed Japan’s investment pledge as a model for the EU, but the subtext was clear: Trump wants terms, not trust. Treasury’s Bessent said there’s “no rush” to replace Powell — but traders know that’s how storms start. First the breeze, then the flags flap, then the weather turns.

So for now, risk climbs the rope hand over hand, hoping the knot at the top holds. Equities are levitating not because of strength, but because gravity hasn’t shown up yet. August 1 looms like a toll gate — if deals pass through, the rally rolls on. But if talks falter, the exit ramp could get crowded fast.

We’re flying with clear skies and smooth tape. But the dollars compass is spinning — and somewhere ahead, the needle will settle. Traders just hope they’re not already too far off course when it does.

The Dollar’s Drag: What Happens When Fundamentals Get Trumped

Absent the trade war theatrics, the Section 899 tax-scare, and the jittery uncertainty around the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, the U.S. dollar should be trading about 9.5% higher. That’s not a hypothetical flourish—that’s what the regression models say when you isolate the yield differentials and plug them into a clean macro framework. Put simply, if FX were still playing by the old rules, the greenback would be flexing at cycle highs, not slumping through key technical levels.

Instead, we’ve been living in a world where policy risk has hijacked the tape. Trade policy uncertainty—quantified in real time via Bloomberg’s Trade Policy Uncertainty Daily Index—exploded post-Q1, dragging the dollar offside relative to what the curve implies. Toss in Section 899, a legislative grenade that had foreign investors fretting retaliatory tax treatment, and you’ve got a perfect storm of capital hesitation.

But here’s the good news for dollar bulls: two of those three anvils may soon lift. Section 899 is now effectively in the rearview mirror, and with the U.S.–Japan 15% tariff template taking hold across Europe, a broader trade ceasefire looks plausible within weeks. Once that fog clears, the FX market may revert back to trading fundamentals—and that means yield spreads will matter again. If they do, the dollar has a lot of catch-up to play.

Still, one overhang remains: Federal Reserve independence—or the erosion thereof. Trump’s continued jabs at Chair Powell have kept this concern simmering, even if it hasn’t boiled over into market pricing. Rates aren’t flashing panic, and Polymarket currently assigns just an 18% probability that Powell is ousted (either fired or resigning) before year-end. But even low-probability risks can weigh on valuation when the narrative is sticky—and this one is.

In trader terms, Powell's Fed is still pricing terminal like it's independent—but the optics scream otherwise. And while the market shrugs, FX doesn’t forget. Foreign investors need not believe Powell will be axed—they just need to fear the Fed might become a mouthpiece, not a mission-driven institution. That fear—however quiet—translates into a valuation discount.

Bottom line: With two out of three macro handbrakes likely lifting, and the third (Fed independence) still just a headline risk rather than a priced scenario, the stage is set for a broad dollar revaluation. Don’t be surprised if the greenback stops sulking and starts reclaiming its lost premium.

Carry On, But With Less Fuel: Japan’s Trade Pact Reshapes Flows

This US-Japan tariff détente — framed as a “win” at 15% versus the threatened 25% — may be fueling a champagne session in Japanese equities today, but beneath the market’s cheer lies a structural shift with global asset flow implications.

The fine print? Japan's decades-long role as a capital exporter — funneling massive surpluses into U.S. Treasuries, European bonds, and global equities — may be entering a slow fade. For years, the flywheel worked like this: run large trade surpluses, recycle those earnings abroad, and underpin demand for foreign risk and duration. But a less favorable trade balance with the US — the result of 15% tariffs replacing what was previously a 1.5% regime — means that surplus shrinks.

And when the current account slims down, so too does the outbound tide of Japanese capital. That wedge — Japanese purchases of foreign securities outpacing inbound flows nearly 3:1 over the last two decades — has helped suppress global yields and inflate asset valuations. If Tokyo now has fewer dollars to recycle, the knock-on effects for global liquidity and FX reserves are not trivial.

Near-term, traders remain focused on carry. Even as yields nudge higher today, there’s a growing sense that political uncertainty in Japan — with Ishiba on a short leash — keeps the BOJ on hold. That backdrop preserves Japan’s status as the world’s cheapest funding base, supporting short-term carry into EM FX, Aussie rates, and tech-heavy equity plays.

But let’s not confuse hedge fund hot money with the heavyweight structural flows of Japanese pensions, insurers, and megabanks. The former chase spreads; the latter recycle surpluses. And it’s the latter — shrinking with each trade deal signed under duress — that holds the keys to long-term FX, bond, and equity regime shifts.

In other words, the market may be cheering the optics today, but if Japan’s trade surpluses shrink over time, so too will its outsized footprint in global asset demand. The world has grown used to Japan exporting both cars and capital. The former may get taxed; the latter may simply dry up. ( July 24 Dark Side of the Boom Blog)